The 2007 Minnesota Vikings Thread

[Transplanted Caper]

2007 Pre-Season Schedule
Week One: St Louis L 13-10
Week Two: @New York Jets W 37-20
Week Three: @Seattle
Week Four: Dallas

2007 Regular Season Schedule
Week 1: Atlanta
Week 2: @Detroit
Week 3: @Kansas City
Week 4: Green Bay
Week 5: BYE
Week 6: @Chicago
Week 7: @Dallas
Week 8: Philadelphia
Week 9: San Diego
Week 10: @Green Bay
Week 11: Oakland
Week 12: @New York Giants
Week 13: Detroit
Week 14: @San Fransisco
Week 15: Chicago
Week 16: Washington
Week 17: @Denver

[JCD]

My take:

Coaching/system- Childress was a train wreck in year one, a failure in every facet of the job. He built up some bad blood with several of the players and that has already caused issues this year as Winfeild skipped practices over it. Childress has said he will communicate better this season and is considering handing off the play-calling to Bevell, but all that remains to be seen. In terms of game strategy, Childress hasn't shown any leanings yet. He was all over the board and didn't show an emphasis on any particular element of the game. In terms of philosophy, you can tell he is a Reid protoge. He thinks his "kick ass" system trumps the need for high-end player. A system over talent belief. He has not waivered in his belief that his offense is a great system, regardless of the results. He blamed the poor offensive performance on a lack of execution and not the strategy itself. There is nothing inheriently wrong with a sytem-over-talent belief (more of a plug-and-play situation), that system needs to actually work for that to be effective. That also remains to be seen.

On offense, Bevell is an unknown. Childress ran the show last year. Bevell may call the plays, how that changes things will remain to be seen. Conventional wisdom would dictate that the Vikes should emphasize the run. That same wisdom applied last year though, and the Vikes were still passed 56% of the time. While on the surface, that is fairly light by NFL standards, it was still 10% more often than they should have and pass-heavy playcalling cost them games (most noteworthy, the Bills' loss).

On defense, another unknown. Tomlin was easily the best defensive coordinator since Dungy and forged a top-10 unit. The Vikings were a team of extremes: best run defense in the league, worst pass defense in the league. Both are misleading. Vikes run defense was indeed very tough, but not as tough as the statistics indicate. Following the Patriots' game, teams used almost exclusively multiple receiver sets and ignored the run. This grossly inflated the passing statistics against. This is evidenced by the rushes against (league low), and passes against (league high). The Vikings pass defense remains suspect. The reason they were exploited was a lack of pass rush and poor depth at CB. The only End added was a 4th round rookie while the the CB's net addition is limited to Edwards returning from injury. Philosophically, nobody knows what Frazier will bring. He has been in several very different style defenses. The blitz-crazy man-up scheme of Johnson in Philadelphia, the conservative mixed zone / man system he used with the Bengals and the Cover-2 system of the Bengals.

Overall- Coaching is an issue. Childress has to first undo the damage wrought last year before he can start moving the team forward. With too unknowns coaching below him, this looks like a very suspect aspect of the team. Should the team struggle, it could get very ugly.

Offense
QB- Going to be a rough year. Jackson is a great athlete, but has yet to step foot on a pro field and not look lost. He is stepping into a virtual worst-case scenario for any QB to handle (suspect line, bad WRs, suspect coaching... at least he should have a running game), but he is trying to learn on the job in those conditions. It is going to be rough. Bollinger is a bubble player that would be fighting for a roster spot on most teams. Here, he is competing to start. Pretty much sums up the QB situation. Thigpen is the 3rd QB... and sadly isn't too far behind the top-2. The "vet presense" is Drew Hanson.. yes that Drew Hanson. He will likely make the team and push Thigpen to the Practice Squad.

Overall- We will struggle. We are the early favorites to finish dead last in pass offense. If we avoid having 50% more INTs than TDs, it will be considered a victory.

RB- Easily the strength of the offense. Peterson has great talent, albeit with injury concerns. While still technically #2 on the depth chart, only a matter of time until he starts. Taylor is back to being in the role he excelled at, a change-of-pace back-up. While a marginal starter, he makes for an elite #2. Moore is 3rd and a servicable scatback/kick returner. The last spot is a competition between Fason, Pinner and Mathis. Mathis faces long odds. Fason may have the most upside, but Pinner is more versatile (can play FB in an emergency). Hard to tell which will win out.

FB is manned by Richardson, returning from injury. T-Rich is a versatile jack-of-all trades and good for a WCO. Converted TE Dugan has a good lock on the #2 spot.

Overall- This will carry the offense to whatever limited success they have. Once given some pass support and an improved line, we can be one of the league's elite (assuming Peterson is the real deal).

WR- There isn't a word in the English that accurately convey's the state of the Viking receivers. You know that sound on the Price is Right when they contestent screws up? Bum-bum-ba-dum? That is as close as you can get. Our top wide-out is Bobby Wade. No, I am not joking. Bobby Wade is currently listed as our top WR. The man who was waived off the woeful Bear's WRs of 2 years ago and whom the equally WR-desperate Titans had no problems letting walk away. Wade is an undersized player with so-so speed and no big-play ability. On most teams, he would be fighting for a depth position. Behind him is Williamson. Williamson worked on his vision this off-season... and he still can't catch. That 1st class ticket to bustville is looking to be non-refundable. Sidney Rice is slated for 3rd. He is extremely raw, critics who said he came out a year too early appear to be right. He will need at least a season to learn how to run Pro Routes. Right now, he is a gifted athlete only. Allison has been solid and could easily end up our #1 WR by year's end. That is as much a statement of the competition as it is his play. McMullen has the inside track to the 5th spot due to his special team's contribution, he is a big lumber body but may have the best hands of the crew (again, level of competition is low). That is if he can get healthy. If not, then there is competition. Hankton was signed and is virtually the same player as McMullen (marginal WR who plays ST), but adds more speed. Carter has had another good camp and would be the best WR, but he isn't as versatile. The rest are warm bodies. Lowbar drew some press for his measurables, but is headed for the practice squad. At best.

Overall- Easily the worst in the league. Heck, there are likely a number of college teams with WRs that would do better than these guys. Combine that with the QB play and it could get REAL ugly.

TE- Shiancoe was signed to a monster contract and handed the starting job. He is doing his best to give it to Kleinsasser. Shiancoe is a great athlete, but is having trouble getting open and struggling to make the catch when he does. He was Shockey's blocking caddy for the Giants and now we know why. Kleinsasser is still a devastating blocker, but a limited receiver. He lacks suddeness and, for a 270+ pound hulk, is relatively easy to bring down in the open field. Owens had a good grip on the #3 spot due to his versatility (has played FB and can longsnap). If you want to be positive, at least this crew should block well.

Overall- Nobody here can catch, but this is one of the better (best?) blocking crews in the league.

Left OL- Center on over is written in stone. McKinnie, Hutchinson and Birk are as talented as any left side in the NFL. However, the system they need to play is in doubt. Childress tried to implement a Zone Blocking scheme last year and it was a horrific failure. None of those three have the speed and agility to execute that system. It appears that the Vikes are going back to a man-scheme similar to what they used under Tice/Green. That scheme is what made Hutch the best guard in the game, Birk one of the best center and fits McKinnie's style. Hopefully, we don't mess with that and let that left side dominate like they should.

Right OL and depth- Here is where it gets ugly. Cook, Johnson, Hicks and (outside chance) Herrera are competing for the 2 starting spots. All have notable issues. Hicks is the most reliable, but is a back-up caliber player and did his best work as a spot-starter at LT behind Tra Thomas. Cook is a converted center and a project. He has the frame, mentality and disposition to be an effective player (he seems a bit slow, so is unlikely to ever be a star), he is a work in progress. Johnson is an undisciplined mauler who ends up lunging a lot at tackle. He might slide inside to guard, but he struggled inside considerably as rookie. He might just be a back-up. Herrera, who can also play center, is a big-bodied streetfighter type that does more with aggression than talent. A good guy to carry for depth, but a worry if he is our starter. Behind them is a whole host of warm bodies with no experience. It is possible the Vikes sign a vet for the 8th linemen if nobody steps up.

Overall- An offensive line needs balance. Having a great left side is negated by having a bad right side. Teams just attack the soft side. While there is a possibility that Cook and/or Johnson emerge to anchor that side, that remains doubtful.

Defense

DT- Easily the strength of the defense. Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are the best pair of DTs in the game today. No reason to think they won't remain so. Depth behind them is poor. Spencer Johnson is the best, and he is a bubble player. Howard Green is attempting a comeback and a couple warm bodies are competing as well. It is possible that one of the bigger DEs (Udeze or Scott) is slid inside to supply depth.

Overall- Even our best spot has worries. Depth is lacking here.

DE- Optimistically, we have a lot of young talent with potential. Pessimistically, there isn't one proven worthwhile starter on the roster. Scott is the returning sack leader, but he is more a base end and not a Cover-2 edge rusher. He can play inside in a pinch (or on passing downs), so seems a lock for the roster. Udeze is very similar to Scott. Udeze has issues about his speed coming out of college and seemed to have lost his burst to injury. He started 16 games and had zero sacks last season. Perhaps he will be healthier this year. Or perhaps he is a base end and should come off the field in passing situations. He is stout against the run. Actually, he started out as a NT in college, so could beef up a few pounds and play inside full-time. Edwards, Robinson and James represent the hopes of a better pass rush. Edwards looked good before injury last year and is at least an effective rotational guy. James is a former first rounder that was expected to be an impact pass rusher but has yet to get his career on track, is this the year he finally does? Robison has been the best in camp and impressed with his quickness. He looks to be a lock for the roster and will at least play as our 3rd down specialist.

Overall- Nothing but questions here. In an ideal world, Udeze is converted to DT, James and Scott start with Edwards the back-up and Robison the 3rd down player.

LB- Notable change going on here. Leber is the only starter returning to the same position. While not a gamebreaker, he is a steady and reliable vet. He misses some open field tackles, but is our best cover LB. Henderson is moving back inside to his natual position. Henderson is a big instinctive hitter that does his best work attacking the line. He is slow and can be exposed in coverage though. He wasn't a very good fit in the Cover-2, but could excel in the Trotter role should Frazier use the Eagles scheme. Last year's 1st round pick Greenway is slated to start at the weakside. This is effectively his rookie season, so expect growing pains. He does look to be fully healthy at least. Thomas is the top back-up. He is a great athlete, but has very poor awareness. Lots of wasted motion and always a step behind the play. Rookie Alexander is pushing him for the top backup outside. Inside, Farwell is an overachiever who contributes on special teams. Ciurciu is a very similar player that was signed to a hefty FA contract, so Farwell's job is in jeopardy. Also in the mix is vet Glenn.

Overall- No names, but could be quietly effective. At least the starters. Depth is a pressing issue as there are no quality back-ups waiting in the wings. Best hope should somebody go down is that Rufus becomes a rookie find. That is a longshot.

Safety- Vikes were stung by a lack of depth last year and overcompensated this year. Sharper is the most accomplished, but he is a poor fit for the Cover-2. He is at his best reading plays and reacting, so could excel in a Dawkins' like role. He is a lock for one starting spot. The other spot is up for grabs between Tank Williams, Smith, Doss and (longshot) Blue. Williams is an in-the-box run-stuffer with a long history of injury. Smith is the most experienced cover-2 safety and is the incumbant starter. Doss played for Frazier in Indy and has talent... but can't stay healthy enough to get on the field. All three are established former starters. That leaves Blue on the outside looking in. He was an intimidating hitter last year with good speed, but weak in coverage. He might convert to OLB and serve as a nickel LB.

Overall- Have great depth, and could be great if the players are used in the right situation. Those are big if's.

CB- Winfield is one of the better CBs in the league. Not a big playmaker per-se, but very reliable in coverage and one of the best in run support. But after him... Griffin was solid as a rookie and expected to start. He is a classic Cover-2 CB. Not a blazer and can't be left on an island, but will serve his role. McCauley has been solid and expected to replace Smoot. Smoot was a terrible fit in the Cover-2, McCauley should be more versatile. That said, we still don't know how well he can cover. The 4th spot is up for graps. Whitaker held it last year, but QBs picked on him mercilessly. Edwards missed last year to injury, but was solid as a rookie and is the favorite for the spot. While not a star, he is solid for depth.

Overall- After Winfield, 3rd year player Edwards is the most experienced CB on the roster. As such, expect a lot of youthful mistakes and blown coverages.

Special Teams

Kicker- Longwell is steady and reliable. Kick-offs leave much to be desired though. He faces no competition.

Punter- Kluwe is the returning starter. He had a booming leg 2 years ago, but that was before injury. He seems to have lost a lot of leg. He might be pushed by Reyes, but that seems unlikely. Now, if Reyes shows he can kick-off, all bets are off.

Longsnapper- Come on, what is there to be said here? Loeffler has the job locked up, but doesn't play much anywhere else. I think he is an emergency TE. Owens is expected to be the fallback.

KR- Wade and Moore are the top two. Likely, Wade will give up those duties to keep fresh for the offense and give Moore the job full-time. Moore is a good returner who has scored some TDs.

Gunners- Coverage was an issue last year. Vikes went out of there way to bring in some ST mavens, Hankton and Ciurciu. They also drafted several rookies (Alexander, Robison) who are expected to contibute. Add those to regulars like Farwell, Blue, Edwards and McMullen and things should improve. One thing you can bank on, Greenway won't be covering kicks.

Overall- Special teams is decent. Coverage was a concern, but the additions in the off-season should help. Punting is an issue. If Kluwe doesn't regian his old form (or beat out Reyes...), then he will be gone after this season.

Overall- This is clearly a rebuilding year. He have a very young roster and added few proven vet players in the off-season. The offense is going to struggle mightily. The defense and special teams will need to carry the team. It is quite possible (dare say, likely?), that we notch fewer than the 6 wins we totaled last year. If these are growing pains or part of a downward spiral hinge on Childress ability as a head coach. Crucial to helping a team grow and learn, is the ability to communicate. What transpired last year isn't a good sign.

[Jay]

JCD back in rare form ... excellent analysis

[Transplanted Caper]

Yeah, excellent stuff JCD, really insightful analysis. As a fan with about average football knowledge outside of my own team it's great to get in depth thoughts like that.

I agree the Vikings are probably in a lot of trouble this season. Luckily (or unluckily for them if they want a top pick) they get the Packers and Lions twice, the Giants, the Falcons and the Raiders on the schedule this season.I'm not suggesting in any way they run they table or even emerge with a better than .500 record in those games, but I see those teams as being beatable. Given that most teams are usually good for an upset, a 5-11 season would be my guess if I were to have to make a bet.

It'll be interesting too see how Peterson handles the load in Year One, as you mentioned he's getting thrown to the fire given the lack of anything at the wideout position. Unfortunately there was nothing the Vikes could do in terms of an immediate impact in the draft save for trading up for Johnson which wasn't going to happen. The rest of the receivers were beyond a massive reach where Minnesota picked and they were able to grab Rice in the 2nd, so Peterson was definitely the right choice to get the offense back on track.

I think it's going to be a long year for anyone not the Bears in this division. I think the Lions have the most potential among the other teams and I think the Packers are a disaster waiting to happen. I honestly think this could be the rock bottom year for them.

[JCD]

Originally Posted by Transplanted Caper

I agree the Vikings are probably in a lot of trouble this season. Luckily (or unluckily for them if they want a top pick) they get the Packers and Lions twice, the Giants, the Falcons and the Raiders on the schedule this season.I'm not suggesting in any way they run they table or even emerge with a better than .500 record in those games, but I see those teams as being beatable. Given that most teams are usually good for an upset, a 5-11 season would be my guess if I were to have to make a bet.

Thing is, as bad as those teams are, we are right there with em. All those games are easily a loss just as well.

We have the Lions number, but that streak is due to end eventually. Lets say we split there. A split against the Packers is also likely. Giants always seem to beat us, so that is almost certainly to be a loss (our last win against them was one of the biggest flukes in recent years: 2 Kick returns for TDs and a defense score for a 24-21 win... with the game winning FG coming off weak-legged Edinger's foot from over 50... the lone offensive score of the game).

I am guessing between 3-5 wins myself.

Originally Posted by Transplanted Caper

It'll be interesting too see how Peterson handles the load in Year One, as you mentioned he's getting thrown to the fire given the lack of anything at the wideout position. Unfortunately there was nothing the Vikes could do in terms of an immediate impact in the draft save for trading up for Johnson which wasn't going to happen. The rest of the receivers were beyond a massive reach where Minnesota picked and they were able to grab Rice in the 2nd, so Peterson was definitely the right choice to get the offense back on track.

Jackson or Peterson? Peterson was a good pick, as he was (by most counts) the best player on the board.

Jackson is screwed this year. While no WR was worth drafting high, they did jack in FA. They made an attempt at Curtis, but the only other FA they brought in was friggen Wade. They should have aggresively brought in 2-3 WRs in addition to drafting Rice to get some competition going. As well as brought in somebody to be Jackson's safety net out there.

As it stands, Jackson doesn't have one proven set of hands to throw to.

That they gave a combined 30 million over 5 years (no typo) to Wade and Shiancoe only makes it worse.

Originally Posted by Transplanted Caper

I think it's going to be a long year for anyone not the Bears in this division. I think the Lions have the most potential among the other teams and I think the Packers are a disaster waiting to happen. I honestly think this could be the rock bottom year for them.

I think the Lions are the most over-hyped team in the league. They made a lot of moves, but I still say they have lost as much talent as they have gained.

Packers have no depth. If they somehow manage to stay healthy and get lucky at RB, they hover around .500 and sneak into the play-offs. But every team hopes nobody gets hurt, the good team have contingency plans in place. Packers can't afford any of Woodson, Harris, Favre, Driver, Tauscher or Clifton to get hurt because they have jack behind them. And they need something unexpected to happen at RB. That makes me think you are right and they are a disaster waiting to happen.

[Transplanted Caper]

Originally Posted by JCD

Jackson or Peterson? Peterson was a good pick, as he was (by most counts) the best player on the board

Both I suppose. Jackson is no doubt in trouble, but Peterson is going to be leaned on heavily given the lack of anything at receiver.

[JCD]

Originally Posted by Transplanted Caper

Both I suppose. Jackson is no doubt in trouble, but Peterson is going to be leaned on heavily given the lack of anything at receiver.

Peterson has help though. RB is our deepest position by far. Taylor is a competent (albeit marginal) starter on his own and Moore was an effective spot starter a couple years back. If Peterson needs help shouldering the load, he has got it.

No doubt we will lean on our running game..

Er... we should lean heavily on our running game. You never can tell when Childress is calling the plays. We should have leaned on our running game last year, but Childress dumped that for a pass-heavy attack a couple games into the season.

[JCD]

Update:

QB- Jackson has looked both good and bad in the pre-season. Optimistically, he seems to be a streaky QB that can be effective when he gets on a roll. Pessmistically, he can botch even a simple hand-off when he isn't. Thigpen, Hanson and Bollinger have been, put mildly, disappointing. Bollinger, the supposed stablizing vet, has particularly struggled.

RB- Peterson has looked great, but the sample is far to small to mean anything. Taylor is a known commodity. Moore has shown very little. Fason is a catch-22. He hasn't seen much time, but hasn't done much with the time he has to earn any more. His roster spot is in jeopardy. Pinner has been the most physical back and is making a strong case to stick as the 3rd back. Richardson looks to be back in good health. Dugan has really struggled.

WR- Even worse than expected. Rice can't run route, Williamson can't catch, Wade is slow and McMullen is hurt. Allison looked great in practice, but has yet to make a catch in a game. In desperation, Vikes have signed Ferguson from the Packers. The 2nd round bust whose (injury-plauged) career best is all of 38 catches.

TE- Shiancoe is still struggling. A gifted athlete, he has not translated that into effective play. Kleinsasser may end up starting by default. On the bright side, the blocking has looked good.

OL- Tale of Two Cities Redux. Left side is looking good. They dumped the Zone Scheme and are letting the players do what they do best. Right side has struggled. Hicks has locked up the RG spot, but he is a marginal starter. RT is a huge weakness. Cook is getting pushed around and looks like the project he is. Johnson has continued to regress. The depth looks terrible.

DL- The Williams are dominating inside. Their back-ups blow. Vikes signed problem-child Evans (who is facing suspension) to help out. DE has been a pleasent surprise. Robison, without a doubt, has been their best. He is showing speed and tenacity reminiscent of a young Grant Wistrom. Does he have the stamina to start? Will he last the season? Who knows, but he is looking good. Edwards has also played quite well and may end up as the other starter. James is still hurt, but if he is healthy enough to avoid the PUP/IR, then either Scott or Udeze are expendable. neither of whom have done anything so far. One may end up helping out the woeful interior depth. With Udeze still having shown no burst since returning from injury, he is the likely candidate.

LB- The starters are set, but none of stepped up. Thomas had a great game against the Jets. Has the light finally gone on for him? Who knows, but he is the top back-up for certain. Farwell leads in tackles, but that number is a bit misleading as the line in front of him was horrible. Ciurciu has locked up with 6th slot with decent play and ST contributions.

DB- McCauley is putting pressure on Griffin to start. Edwards' return from injury has given them some solid dimeback play to boot. Too early to tell who will win out at safety to start opposite Sharper, but Smith is pulling ahead.

ST- Longwell is losing leg strength, his kick-offs have been even worse than last year. Kluwe still hasn't shown his big leg of 2 years ago, but Reyes has given him little competition. Returns, particularly the blocking on punts, have been suspect.

Overall- Not an impressive pre-season so far and no evidence that the long, losing season prediction is inaccurate.

[Gzus]

Peterson just punished that one defender on his 20-25 yd run against the Jets. That play shows me he is a legitimate NFL threat. I wouldn't be surprised if he is the starter by 6-7 games into the season.

[JCD]

Originally Posted by Gzus

Peterson just punished that one defender on his 20-25 yd run against the Jets. That play shows me he is a legitimate NFL threat. I wouldn't be surprised if he is the starter by 6-7 games into the season.

Yea, he looked great in that game. Speed, power, burst. You name it.

Well, name everything but durability, because that is still an unknown.

Barring injury, he will be starting over Taylor sooner rather than later. Good chance he does strait out of camp. That said, the starter will be in name only, as the #2 will be splitting the carries pretty closely.

[Gzus]

Iono about straight out of camp, maybe by week 2-3 at the earliest.

[JCD]

Originally Posted by Gzus

Iono about straight out of camp, maybe by week 2-3 at the earliest.

If Childress is holding a legitimate competition to start, then Peterson has been the easy choice.

Taylor will start only if he is given the Veteran preference. In terms of talent and play, Peterson is ahead.

[Rick Astley]

My only questions with Peterson were twofold:

1) Health
2) A tendency to run upright on occasion (of course, which contributes to the health issue)

I really believe that Peterson has the most upside in this draft after CJ. A healthy Adrian Peterson will be a star. Period. He's too talented not to be.

[Transplanted Caper]

Vikings acquire QB Holcomb from Eagles


Holcomb to the Vikes


Also, I'm pretty sure I read on a Ticker the last day or so that Henson has been released

[JCD]

Originally Posted by Transplanted Caper

Vikings acquire QB Holcomb from Eagles


Holcomb to the Vikes


Also, I'm pretty sure I read on a Ticker the last day or so that Henson has been released

With as badly as both Henson and Bollinger have sucked, the needed to acquire somebody.

Odd trivia, Vikes have now traded away both their 2008 (Bollinger) and 2009 (Holcomb) 6th round picks for QBs.